In order to understand our world, and more important, to predict the future of our world, people have since long relied on modeling. Since the rise of low cost computing, modeling softwares have become mainstream. Latest type of modeling tools use the concept of agents, that interact with one another, in time and space. Agents can be anything, from ants, to birds, atoms, genes, humans... 

The key in agent based modeling is that the logic is decentralized in each of the agents. This way the model comes a big step close to the real world.

Ants looking for food

The beyond example, using one of the dominant modeling softwares - Netlogo - models the behavior of ants looking for food.

In the demo, that you can see by clicking further in this text,  we work with 250 ants. The environment consists of the ants nest, a food source and an obstacle between the nest and the food source. The ants look for the food, and once they find it, they leave pheromones on the ground to indicate the food trail to their mates. Curious how they work it out ? Click here!

Social and business applications

Ants looking for food: thats's nice. But what can agent based modeling do for society and business? Stephen and Owen had the answer. In the context of a large concert, they were requested to model the concert stadion and the concert attendees moving around in the stadion. This model proved to be the ideal tool to give the city's safety staff better insight in possible mass behaviors, in case of multiple unexpected events.

When I asked what had been done for business, the answer came quick and removed my latest doubts: project portfolio management! In a kind of bowling hall setting, we could see projects evolve, interact with one another, while the project portfolio manager was keeping an eye on the lanes, tipping from a beer in the lane seats! Wow, this I have to try, once home! I mean, the modeling of course, although ...

Santa Fe - Agent Based Modeling written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

One of the main objectives of the Complexity Science Summer School is creating a professional network between the participants. And I must say that first contacts look very promising. I am looking forward to spend the next three weeks with, to name a few, following people:

Thomas is French, does his PhD in Zurich, where he focuses on risks in cyberspace. His PhD supervisor is an authority in systemic risks.

Roberta is Italian, has a degree in physics, and is i2nd year PhD, researching the way information flows in complex networks.

Massimilian is working for a large Italian telecom operator, that is part of the Santa Fe business network. He focuses on internet media and digital communication..

Grifffith is American, but works since several years in Oxford, focusing on sociology and networks.

Vanessa works in Venezuela and is specialized in ecology and climate change.

Ranjani and Zoe work for one of the Santa Fe business partners, in the domain of, a.o. artificial intelligence, complex systems and agent based modeling.

Tom works for the US Government and is, a.o., specialized in game theory

Giovanni works in London as a PhD student at the Centre for Transport studies and is in the University Complexity and Networks group

Furthermore our day was blessed with 5 ( :-$ ) lectures:

Liz Bradley disclosed the details of bifurcation, the constant of Feigenbaum, the characteristics of fractals, attractors and the lyapunov exponent. These terms may sound marsian, but some discussion clarified possible use in business context.

Peter Dodds, good for two lectures, introduced us to the "Science of Networks". This field has attracted many researchers of which many physicists in the nineties of the previous century. Most known researchers is Albert- Laszlo Barabasi, who introduced the concept of "scale free" network. Since then, many concepts and methods have been developed to analyse the data created by complex networks, amongst others,  social networks.

Iain Couzin transposed his biological models on collective behavior, to the social and business environment

Finally, Tom Carter gave a wonderful demo of several agent based models (ABM), using Netlogo, one of the dominatnt ABM tools

Luckily, Santa Fe is situated approximately 2000 meters above sea level. This way, at night,  temperature in our dormitories – no airco – drops at a feasible level, giving way for a refreshing night.

Networking in Santa Fe written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Tags: attractor, collective behavior, game theory, network science

On Monday, June 6th, I entered, together with 45 other participants, the Grand Hall of Saint Johns College in Santa. Mostly young - PhD and post doc - people working in disciplines as different as sociology, theoretical physics, biology, psychology, also some experienced business people, coming from all around the globe : the Santa Fe Institute, certainly has international attraction power. The summer school's CSSS2010 wiki proves that down in New Mexico, they do understand the importance and possibiliies of technology. On this open wiki you can find a lot of information on the participants, the program and many selected readings.

So what did we cover the first day?

* Liz Bradley explained the basics of Non Lineair Dynamics, for discrete as well as for continuous time systems. The most know example of complex continuous time systems is the Lorentz attractor, resulting from research on predictability of the weather. The iconic example of a complex discrete time system is the "foxes and rabbits" problem, or the logisitics model. This model originated from biological population research but was taken over quickly by complexity mathematicians.

* Iain Couzin lectured on Collective Behavior, like swarming and flocking. This sub-discipline in Complexity Science tries to explain why insects, animals and people show emerging behavioral patterns like swarming and flocking. 

Finally we were asked to self organize, in order to come up with a number of summer school projects. The "smart leadership" project that I proposed, got selected and will be executed by myself in collaboration with 4 participants: Giovanni working in a large Itailian Telecom company, Shiva having his own company in biofinance, Lee a Chinese Phd student in Strategy Development and Andreas a Dutch post doc in network management. Together we have drafted the project on a flip-chart paper. The objective of the project comes down to defining the possible use of complexity based approached in managerial and leadership context.

All feedback and input on this summer school project is more than welcome.

Regards,

Erik.

First Day of the Complexity Science Summer School written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Tags: complex systems, complexity

First realization has been the successful seminar "Complexity: Friend or Foe", December 16, 2009, Brussels, with Geoffrey West from Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico,  as keynote speaker. 

Erik Van den broecke opened the seminar, pointing out the importance of understanding complexity. Geoffrey West explained the complexity paradigm and shared insights resulting from his research. During the tracks on "complexity and mechatronics" and "complexity and wikinomics", the relevance of complexity for solving real world problems was demonstrated and discussed. Speakers in these tracks were a.o. prof Hendrik Van Brussel, professor Francis Heylighen and professor Paul Valckenaers.

In response to the DAVOS request "do you have something to say", seminar conclusions were packaged as a pitch to the world and delivered to the DAVOS debates of January 2010.

In 2010 a Complexity Business Lab will be launched. The lab will, in cooperation with 4 to 6 companies, investigate complexity aspects of business strategy, business organization, processes and systems. The lab is planned to run from September to December 2010.

In April 2011, Lab results will be presented during the second "Complexity, Friend or Foe" conference.

KVIV and Complexity written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Tags: complexity, mechatronics, wikinomics

Thursday, February 18th, I was invited to a graduation ceremony at Utrecht, The Netherlands. The invitation drew my attention because the graduating students were quite interesting. All of them had over 20 years of business experience and the last 18 months had invested more than 40 days in their Master in Advanced Change Management. Count an additional 40 days for literature, class prep and social events. I was curious what these business veterans had learned.

“What is leading you in Youth Care?” was the event theme. Not directly ICT related. But appartently , the multitude of initiatives in Youth Care in The Netherlands, makes it difficult to put priorities and select a strategic course. And that surely sounds ICT-like!

People in Youth Care are divided in “professionals” and “managers”, so we were explained.  Professionals are passionate, involved and full of energy. Managers are linked to burocracy, taking distance and control. If the professional  opts to follows the numerous quality systems in selecting tasks and priorities, the coaching youngsters become at peril. Also here the parallel with ICT environments is clear.  ICT professionals – developers and architects – easily state that the IT quality systems are killing creativity and work satisfaction.

But the most important learning point is in another area. In the black townships of Soweto, so the case explained, government had been trying to improve life conditions for youngsters through large change initiatives, but without results. Until, one day, a local police agent, put some “teddy bears” in his office. Capturing the message “I have interest in your world”, youngsters more easily found their way to the office. Contact between officials and youth increased in quantity and quality, and soon the policy office because a multi-service youth center. The approach of the local agent, is now being copied by the government to the other black townships.

Suddenly alos here the link with ICT became clear to me! One of my bigger customers recently, and initially to my surprise, had abandoned to launch large strategic change initiatives for IT transformation. Change initiatives had to be “low-profile”, not using broadcast communication. In stead focus was on personal involvement at small scale, and “micro-communication” adapted to the receiver.

These business vets made it clear to me:  the more complex the situation, the higher the importance of small initiatives. Maybe I have to put the Master in Advanced Change Management to my list.

The importance of small initiatives written by Erik Van den broecke in: 1. Project Portfolio & Program Management

Tags: change management, small initiatives

One of the most remarkable insights that came to me during last months,  links Wikipedia with termite hills. Of course, Wikipedia has an article on termite hills. One can read that these hills  can become real cathedrals, up to 10 meters high in Australia. But here I want to focus on the fact that the high tech Wikipedia community uses the same mechanisms to build its word-cathedrals, than the ancient termites. 

A termite hill grows because termites are attracted by “work in progress”. A first termite drops a bit of mud in a random place, and this entices other termites to drop their bits in the same place. The higher the mud pile, the stronger the termites are attracted. And so cathedrals develop.

Similarly members of the Wikipedia community are attracted by articles within their domain of interest. If shortcomings or errors are noticed, they tend to fix these by making an own contribution. As is the case for termites, there is no direct communication between Wikipedia contributors. The higher the quality of the resulting article, the more people are attracted, and the higher the chances that further enhancements are made. This positive feedback mechanism explains the enormous and fast growth of Wikipedia.

A second method used as well  by insects as by Wikipedia, can be found in ant colonies. During work – looking for and transporting  food to the nest, the ant creates a trail of pheromones. Since ants are attracted by pheromones, they can easily find the paths to food sources. Trails towards rich sources are amplified by the ant traffic. Trails to poor sources are not amplified and disappear.

Wikipedia contributors use hyperlinks to explain terms in their contribution. If however the term does not yet have a page in Wikipedia, an empty page is created. Consequently Wikipedia publishes a list of “most wanted articles”, in which the empty pages that are referenced most, are listed at the highest places. This Wikipedia “most wanted” index corresponds to the strongness of the pheromones trail in the ant colonies. Both lead to the place where the biggest added value can be realized.

The two above mechanisms show that insight in biology can lead to better understanding of the principles and opportunities of open source communities. So “back to nature” stays a good mantra, even for those that prefer the comfortable chair in front of their laptop!

For more information see:  Why is open access development so successful?, F. Heylighen, 2007

Wikipedia and Termite Hills written by Erik Van den broecke in: 3. Knowledge & Networks

Tags: stymercy, wikipedia

The first stage began in 1880 and the fifth stage ended in 1940. Hughes is convinced that the ICT revolution will live the same five stages. In 2000, the year of his lecture, the IT revolution was already its fourth stage.

In this blog post I will discuss the first two stages of both revolutions. In my next blog post, I will focus on the other stages and will try to extrapolate on the fifth stage of the ICT revolution.

The five stages that can be discerned in the evolution of the electric light and power systems, are characterized by the type of entrepreneur dominating the phase and the geographical spread of the electrical utilities.

Between 1880 and 1900, the first stage, “inventor-entrepreneurs” developed the initial industrial electricity applications, such as lighting systems and electricity transportation networks. Electricity support extended over urban districts. The époque heroes were Thomas Edison and Georges Westinghouse. Towards 1890 engineers started interconnecting electrical power systems by means of transformers and frequency changers. This way a universal system emerged from the “battle of systems”.

The first stage of the ICT revolution started in 1967 when ARPANET was introduced to a wide audience of professionals. The stage-one heroes invented new hard- and software: John Hennessey invented RISC chips (seventies), Scott McNeally developed the SUN Microsystems (eighties), Timothy Berners-Lee made the basic design for the internet and built the first website at CERN (1991) , Marc Andreesen developed the first widespread browser Netscape (mid 90’ies). The comparison between the electrical transformers and frequency changers on the one hand and the routers and gateways on the other hand is striking.

Between 1900 and 1920 “manager-entrepreneurs” took the lead. They grew large companies through mergers and acquisitions and leveraged the universal electricity system to develop supply infrastructures covering cities like New York and Chicago. Furthermore they developed the electricity market and optimized the utilization, or the load factor, of the electricity generation facilities.

In the ICT arena, the outstanding “manager-entrepreneur” story is the Microsoft saga and the development of Windows as the dominant PC operating system. The spread of Windows created a huge market for PC applications. Mergers and acquisitions created other market making companies. The merger between Time Warner, a media company providing content, and America on Line (AOL) a late internet service provider, is an outstanding example.. The recent strategic partnerships between mobile phone companies and music industry players further expand the market.

The third stage in both revolutions is the stage of the large infrastructure investments and the increasing regulation by government. As said, my next blog post will start from there. Come and read next week!

The fifth stage of the ICT revolution, part 1 written by Erik Van den broecke in: 3. Knowledge & Networks

Tags: ict revolution, internet

Today, roughly 25 years later, these technologies have become omni-present, but more important they have become the cornerstone for the strategy of many organizations and companies. That is why I accepted the proposal of www.ITprofessional.be to blog for their strategy oriented section. While blogging, I will share insights and ask your feedback on ICT technology as a core strategic capability. We will dive into questions such as “How can organizations tap the Global Brain?” or “In what does Wikinomics differ from standard economics?”.

An unexpected but important side effect of all that technological “violence” consists of the fact that our world has become more complex. People have become “empowered” through easy access to information, resulting in an acceleration in their decision taking process. On the other hand the internet has shrinked the world into a village where transaction costs have become minimal. The combination of decision speed and ease to transact has resulted in a world where complex change has become the standard. For this reason I will also focus on complexity. Question and topics to tackle are “How to develop strategy in a complex and rapidly changing world?” or “New spectacles to better recognize and deal with complexity”.

ITprofessional and I baptize this IT professional blog as “Technology, Complexity and Strategy” and hope this child will grow and prosper!

Erik Van den broecke blogs for www.ITprofessional.be written by Erik Van den broecke in: 3. Knowledge & Networks

Tags: complexity, flanders' technology, global brain, ict, personal computers, technology, third industrial revolution, wikinomics

Of course financial markets are inherently uncertain. We know that bubbles can be created and that bubbles can burst. The problem is that we never know upfront whether it's a bubble or not. And if it is a bubble, we have no means to predict the timing of the burst. The analogy with earth quakes - also extreme events - is remarkable.

The creation and the bursting of bubbles is a phenomenon that appears in many complex systems, be it financial, biological or technological complex systems. Complex systems consists of large numbers of nodes or agents that are connected to one another. The overall set of these connections is called "the network".

Nodes do not connect randomly

Complexity theory states that nodes do not connect randomly. A new node prefers to connect with existing nodes that are well connected. As a result, some nodes become more important than others.  In the financial system the nodes or agents are the different banks. Some banks indeed are better connected then others.

A bubble is created when suddenly one or some agents become super connected. The bubble bursts if one of the super connected agents is hit by a event that suddenly changes its reputation or role in the network. Because of the super connectedness the initially small event is enforced and cascaded trough the network, causing the burst.

CxO's should invest in understanding complexity

CxO's that deepen their insight in these complexity related insights, can better make sense of extreme events.

Reference: The Network Challenge. Strategy, Profit and Risk in an Interlinked World. Colin Crook. Wharton School Publishing, 2009

Complexity theory explains extreme events written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Tags: bubbles, complex systems, extreme events

Het ineenstorten van de bancaire wereld ligt nog vers in het geheugen. Wat bijblijft is de totale verrassing. Beleidsmakers zagen de crash niet aankomen en bij het zoeken naar oplossingen werd eerst gezorgd voor eigen land. Pas later zocht men globale oplossingen. In de muziekwereld zien we een gelijkaardig fenomeen. Het illegaal verspreiden van muziek in digitale vorm werd initieel geval per geval bevochten. Pas na enkele jaren begon de muziekindustrie te zoeken naar creatieve en duurzame oplossingen, waarbij met mondjesmaat wordt toegegeven dat de wereld fundamenteel veranderd is .

Complexiteit als onderliggende oorzaak

Deze twee voorbeelden, zo stelt ir. Erik Van den broecke van de Koninklijke Vlaamse Ingenieursvereniging (KVIV), hebben een gemeenschappelijke oorzaak, namelijksysteem complexiteit. Het komt erop neer dat we door de snelle opgang van ICT-technologie met z’n allen veel hechter met elkaar verbonden zijn en dat we hierdoor veel sneller beslissingen nemen en van gedrag veranderen. Hierdoor verliezen verschillende sociaaleconomische systemen hun evenwicht en vertonen deze plotseling complexe gedragingen. Het uitwerken van duurzame oplossingen kan enkel indien we meer inzicht verkrijgen in de systeemcomplexiteit zelf. Andere fenomenen die dezelfde onderliggende oorzaak hebben zijn de toenemende verkeersproblemen en - vandaag volledig in de actualiteit - de opwarming van onze aarde.

Hulp van professor Geoffrey West, dé wereld specialist omtrent complexiteit

Gezien de belangrijkheid van deze problemen klopten de Vlaamse Ingenieurs aan bij dé wereldspecialist inzake complexiteit, namelijk prof. Geoffrey West, voorzitter van the Santa Fe Institute for Complexity Research, US. Samen met deze - door Time Magazine gelauwerde prof- wil de KVIV nieuwe inzichten en ervaring omtrent het omgaan met complexiteit verspreiden onder politici en bedrijfsleiders. Een eerste activiteit kreeg de vorm van een seminarie, getiteld “Complexity, Friend or Foe”. Op woensdag 16 december brengt de KVIV een 70-tal beslissingsnemers samen in Brussel, om onder leiding van professor Geoffrey West en een aantal Vlaamse complexiteitsspecialisten – prof Hendrik Van Brussel, prof Paul Valckenaers en prof Francis Heylighen- Jos De Neve op zoek te gaan naar boodschappen voor politici en bedrijfsleiders. http://www.kviv.be/loma/public/ToekomstVlaanderen/Activiteiten_complex.aspx

KVIV afdeling Loopbaan & Maatschappij / Denktank “Toekomst Vlaanderen”

De resultaten van het seminarie zullen gebruikt worden om volgende stappen in deze sensibilisatietocht te concretiseren en op te starten. Hiertoe heeft de ingenieursverenging de denktank “Toekomst Vlaanderen”, reeds actief naar aanleiding van de Vlaamse verkiezingen in 2004, nieuw leven ingeblazen. Meer info en contact : http://www.kviv.be/loma/public/toekomstvlaanderen.aspx

Over de KVIV

De KVIV werd opgericht in 1928 en verenigt zo’n 9.000 bio- en burgerlijk ingenieurs. In de loop der jaren is de KVIV uitgegroeid tot een stevig gestructureerde en steeds actievere vereniging die nu ook op Europees vlak een voortrekkersrol speelt. De KVIV is erkend als de Vlaamse vertegenwoordiger van bio- en burgerlijk ingenieurs. De werking steunt op de belangeloze inzet van een duizendtal leden die borg staan voor voortdurende vernieuwing, creativiteit en kwaliteit. Ze kunnen daarbij rekenen op een vast secretariaat van een 15-tal medewerkers. 

Vlaamse Ingenieurs en het Santa Fe Institute US, sensibiliseren politici en bedrijfsleiders written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Strategic Dynamic Capability is positioned as a new capability that organizations need to develop in order to survive and thrive in turbulent environments. The capability enables organisations to quickly re-align and adapt its change initiatives when the organisation's strategy has changed due to a sudden events in the environment. Change initiatives can range from project portfolios, to program, projects and incremental improvement activities.

The capability itself is composed of two major management approaches, namely strategic project portfolio management and program management.Today both approaches have been accepted as dominant standrad appraches by the community of project management practioners.

However Strategic Dynamic Capability only emerges if the two approaches are implemented in a fully integrated way, and on top of that, interfacing well with a number of other managelment approaches in the organisation, such as project management, line  and stategic management.

I use the term Strategic Dynamic Capability frequently during my consultng assignments and I notice it helps customers to define the business case for implementing project portfolio and program management

Is any-one else using this "Strategic Dynamic Capability" term? If yes, thanks for sharing your experience.

Regards,

Erik Van den broecke
Managing Director
Itinera Management Services & Consulting

Strategic Dynamic Capability written by Erik Van den broecke 2 in: 1. Project Portfolio & Program Management

Tags: performance of organisations, program management, project portfolio management

The three Dimensions of Turbulence written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Tags: complexity, turbulence

Synergility written by Erik Van den broecke in: 1. Project Portfolio & Program Management

Tags: program management, project portfolio management

The Gap between Strategy and Projects written by Erik Van den broecke in: 1. Project Portfolio & Program Management

Tags: line management, program management, project management, project portfolio management

New network based business models written by Erik Van den broecke in: 3. Knowledge & Networks

Tags: knowledge economy, network science, social networking

Grouping resources along their ease of allocation written by Erik Van den broecke in: 5. Personal Process Reengineering

Tags: knowledge economy

Lessons from Thirties and CDO's written by Erik Van den broecke in: 2. Complexity & System Thinking

Tags: business dynamics, complexity, system thinking

Pre-flecting versus Re-flecting written by Erik Van den broecke in: 5. Personal Process Reengineering

Tags: personal process reengineering

The (dis)advantages of not remembering anything written by Erik Van den broecke in: 5. Personal Process Reengineering

Tags: personal process reengineering

From BPR to PPR written by Erik Van den broecke in: 5. Personal Process Reengineering

Tags: personal process reengineering